Subject: Re: visualize Resent-Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 12:15:28 -0500 Resent-From: Geoffrey Fox Resent-To: p_gcf@npac.syr.edu Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 11:04:26 -0700 From: John Rundle To: "Kenneth J. Hurst" , Geoffrey Fox , Andrea Donnellan Ken's discussion below actually makes a lot of sense when viewed in the context of simulation results on realistic 3-d models we have gotten here, as well as from our pattern forecast method applied to real data. From both methods, we infer that the stress state responsible for both the Landers & Hector mine events appeared at the same time...that these two events get to be phase-locked over many earthquake cycles. Thus I would interpret the Coulomb-Failure function results as implying that the occurrence of Landers delayed the onset of Hector mine by a few years. One could make the point that this information came from doing simulations, as well as from a "forecast technique" that came from studying simulations...it would not have been apparent from just the study of field data alone. For the simulation result, you can reference P.B. Rundle et al., manuscript in preparation (1999). "Kenneth J. Hurst" wrote: > > Geoffrey- > Some help with the visualization stuff: > > The need for 3-D visualiaztion capability is self-evident when > the nature of the GEM problem is considered. It is inherently > a 4-dimensional problem with both space and time dependencies. > > An example of how 3-D visualization might have helped avoid > a potential dust-up comes from the Hector Mine earthquake > this past October 16, 1999: > > One of the first questions everyone had about the HM quake > was "how is it related to the 1992 Landers quake - does the > stress shadow model apply here as it has in other > earthquake sequences?" Initial models indicated that yes > indeed the HM earthquake occured in an area brought closer > to failure by the Landers event. However, on closer examination > it was discovered that *at the depth of the hpocenter*, the > Landers quake had brought the area of the Hector Mine earthquake > *farther* from failure. Had the data been explored using 3-D > visualization methods, this mistake would probably not have been made > in the initial interpretation. > > Ken Hurst > > Mail Stop 238-600 voice: 818-354-6637 > Jet Propulsion Lab / Caltech FAX: 818-393-4965 > Pasadena, CA 91109 hurst@cobra.jpl.nasa.gov -- ----------------------------------------------------- + John B. Rundle + Professor of Physics and Geophysics + Director, Colorado Center for Chaos and Complexity + University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309 + Phone: (303) 492-5743; (303) 492-5642 + FAX: (303) 492-5070 + e-mail: rundle@hopfield.colorado.edu -----------------------------------------------------