Hi Geoffrey: So quite a lot of people worked on various aspects of the proposal at AGU. Here is the ITR issues in electronic format (text file). I think Terry Tullis, Bill Klein and others will be sending you material. I suggest you take a stab at combining all of this into a reasonable document, then send to me for massaging. I expect to be here until Jan 15, at which point I go to Japan for the ACES meeting. We have also agreed to go to Maui for the next meeting, which will be March 26,27, 28 as I said in my earlier message. Best, John Issues for ITR Proposal San Francisco, CA Sunday, December 12, 1999 HPCC Simulations Computational solvers including acceleration algorithms Single Fault Models Lattice models with Monte Carlo-Langevin-type dynamics Particle-based simulations including Molecular Dynamics Generalize single fault models to fault systems including need for automatic mesh generators Interactions: Quasistatic: Elastic(to focus on correlations, patterns, nucleation of high stress regions, quasistatic stress transfer) Viscoelastic (to add focus on time dependent stress transfer due to stress relaxation) Poroelastic (to add focus on stress transfer due to fluid flow) Inertial Dynamics Elastic (to focus on wave propagation, deterministic details of dynamic source processes, strong ground motions) Viscoelastic (to add focus on wave attenuation & scattering processes) Poreoelastic (to add focus on wave interactions with pore fluids) Formation of fault systems using damage mechanics Standardized formats for threshold instability ("friction") physics: Granular & rolling particle models Hydrodynamics & lubrication models Cellular automata Slip-dependent (weakening and strengthening) Rate & state Stable precursory slip Surface Observables & Analysis Simulation Products: Synthetic earthquake histories Synthetic surface deformation Understanding of macro-physics from micro-processes Scale-dependence of processes, with implications for how to transfer results between different space-time scales Methods for forecasting and prediction Ensembles of models for data-fitting and assimilation Development of theoretical insights Libraries of software and simulation results Integration with Data: XML formats & data transfer protocols for SCIGN, Seismicity, InSAR, etc. Software for data inversion (linear least squares, linear programming, genetic algorithms & evolutionary programming, simulated annealing, etc.) Data assimilation via adjoint-operator methods Use of simulations to aid in data-mining Formulation of analysis/forecast/prediction methods for use in data interpretation, pattern analysis, and data-mining Need for Analysis Software Packages Visualization of all important field variables in space & time Statistics & Statistical Physics (e.g., energy metrics, scaling distributions such as Gutenberg-Richter, Omori, Bufe- Varnes, stress banding, stochastic spinodal curves, etc.) Patterns (SVD to analyze correlation operators, EigenPatterns in seismicity and deformation, apparent pattern dynamics) Display and interpretation for data inversions Software packages for overlay of simulation and data inversion results on geographic information Real-time pattern analysis for local and regional applications Real Time Science and Pattern Analysis Anticipating Earthquakes Real-time pattern analysis using SVD methods of observed data Decade-time scale identification of at-risk locations using Phase Dynamics methods Scenario earthquakes from HPCC simulations Integration of observed surface deformation with existing simulations to yield improved simulations and confirmation of at-risk locations Earthquake response Stress transfer computations to identify areas that may be at immediate risk Processing, integration, display of new data streams Strong motion analysis with applications to built environment Field-worthy collaboratories must be developed for post-earthquake coordination, managment, and data collection Postearthquake analysis and interpretation of new data to determine consistency with scenario earthquakes, forecasts, and deployement of field instrumentation and personnel Perturbation analysis of EigenPatterns and Phase Functions Pattern Analysis and Fundamental Science Evaluation of effectiveness of correlation-operator methods (Karhunen-Loeve, PCA, EOF, etc.) Theoretical analysis of strongly correlated systems through continuing efforts to improve numerical simulations and field-theoretic approaches Extension of pattern methods to non-stationary processes Definition of EigenPatterns in numerical simulations followed by applications to observed data Use of simulations to defne relationship between EigenPatterns of seismic activity and those of more fundamental fields Mode-shaping and modal analysis of dynamical equations used in models and simulations Earth Science Issues A New Approach to Geoscience Development of simulations for process analysis Integration of observations, computations and simulations, and theory via a web-based approach Collaboration of diverse scientists through shared resources and approaches Training of next-generation scientists having transdisciplinary backgrounds Earthquake Forecasting Methodologies: Methods Using Time-to-Failure Functions Classical statistical methods Physical picture of earthquakes as a strongly correlated system local dynamics but giving rise to non-local dynamical patterns Evaluating how to pick the region of interest, and what this implies about the source process Applicability of Log-Periodic or other modifications of simple TtF analysis Use of numerical simulations to establish viable PDF's for TtF methods Phase Dynamics & Correlation-Operator Methods Evaluation of applicability of PD methods and assumptions Testing using world-wide data sets Testing using simulation data EigenPattern analysis and modification of PD state functions to account for instrumental detectability, noise contamination, and other real-world observational issues Construction of EigenPattern filters Evalutation of effectiveness of PD approach over local, regional, global scales Choice of coarse-grained time scales to complement coarse-grained spatial scales Relationship of PD functions for activity-observables to PD functions for unobservable fields Role of Simulations in Earthquake Science Testbed for establishing relationships between observable and unobservable quantities Numerical laboratories to examine physics on space and time scales not otherwise accessible Provides the missing link between theory and observations Testbed for the development of earthquake forecasting and prediction methodologies