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The first step in developing General Earthquake
Models will be to identify
existing codes and models ranging in scale from tenths to tens of
kilometers. We expect
that GEM will encompass the dynamics and physics of individual faults,
all the way
through systems of faults. This includes fault rupture, the causes of
rupture growth into a
large earthquake, fault interactions on short and long time scales, and
the role of rheology,
heterogenity, random property, and noise. A centerpiece of early
development will be a
newly constructed fault-interaction model, to be built by a world-class
team of parallel
computing physical modelers using modern object/component paradigms.
The planned
adaptation of this hugely successful astrophysical N-body algorithm
(``Fast Multipole
Method'') to the implementation of stress Green's functions on
interacting fault systems
will represent a major advance, which when completed will provide a
unique capability for
modeling complex crustal dynamics. The expected computer requirements
as the model
matures will exceed 1 teraflop performance, which will become available
through a number
of computing centers during this time. Our approach ensures that these
resources are well-
spent, as the N-body algorithm is both accurate and efficient. In
general, the friction
models used for GEM will be based upon 1) laboratory experiments, such
as the slip-
weakening or rate-and-state models; 2) computationally simple models
that capture in a
simple way important aspects of frictional sliding, such as the classic
Coulomb-Amontons
law; or 3) statistical mechanics, in which the basic phenomenology of
friction has been
incorporated on coarse grained space-time scales.
Theresa Canzian
Tue Feb 23 11:46:02 EST 1999