Obstacles to success
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sociological and technical
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GEM is eventually inevitable -- lets start now
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Many different approaches to earthquake modeling
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Need a unifying theme
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Primary technical/conceptual challenges in EQ modeling
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basic physics input
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physics length and time scales broad
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Attainable goals in 5 to 10 years
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what simulations are practical now
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practical goals e.g. ground motions, hazard assessment
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conceptual topics e.g. clustering, synthetic catalog, fault networks
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Relate to observations
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