The Outlook For HCFC-22
On December 12, 1995 the Montreal Protocol was once again amended
to control the use of HCFC refrigerants in the global market.
Back in 1992 the London meeting to the Protocol placed a cap
of 3.1% on the production growth of HCFCs in developing countries.
In addition, a stepped phaseout through 2030 was allowed. In
December at the Vienna meeting this 3.1% cap was reduced to 2.8%
with a phaseout in new designs in 2020 leaving a small 1/2% service
tail to 2030. For developing countries HCFC consumption will
be capped at 2016 with a total phaseout by 2040.
With this phaseout schedule, what is the outlook for refrigerant
HCFC-22? Currently there are seven replacements for HCFC-22 proposed
and only 3 in actual use. Those in use are typically for comfort
air conditioning. With a 24 year life of the product, why the
rush to replace HCFC-22? The market size is the reason. HCFC-22
is the most used refrigerant in commercial cooling and residential
air condition applications.
Production of HCFC-22 has increased over the last several years
as shown.
This huge market for HCFC-22 looks very promising for the advocate
of HCFC-22 replacements. With this market promotion there is
a tendency by users of HCFC-22 to panic, and believe that HCFC-22
is gone tomorrow. In reality, some very interesting facts should
be realized prior to any rash decisions.
- The first fact we discussed, HCFC is the most used refrigerant
in the air conditioning/commercial cooling market. The installed
supply and service stocks are huge.
- Secondly, in most countries, you cannot vent HCFC-22 to
the atmosphere by law. (i.e. U.S. Clean Air Act - no venting
after 7/1/92). No venting means the supply remains constant.
- The third fact is in reaction to such laws as the Clean
Air Act, HCFC-22 designs have undergone design modifications to
greatly reduce the leak rates in some cases to less than 0.5%
annual. This maintains the HCFC-22 supply in new equipment.
Previous to these design changes the leak rates were 15%to 18%
annually.
- Fourth, under such laws as the U.S. Clean Air Act, HCFC-22
must be reclaimed or recycled by law to a purity standard prior
to being returned into the market (i.e. ARI-700 Standard and Industrial
Recycling Guide (IRG-2) thus ensuring such a large supply well
beyond 2020.
- Fifth, as the residential air conditioning market moves
to such refrigerants as R-410a and large centrifugal chillers
move to HFC-134a, the reclaimed/recycled supply stock of HCFC-22
will actually increase adding to the supply stock .
- The sixth fact is the availability of replacement components
such as compressors for the HCFC-22 market will be secure.
This is not true for the new designs focused on the new blended
refrigerants. Those products have unique, brand new compressors
and coil designs currently only available from the manufacturer,
not your local dealer. This is especially critical for applications
in mobile commercial cooling such as truck and trailer refrigeration
where globally service is required virtually at every major city
in the world.
So what is the outlook for HCFC-22? Only one problem - looking
out to when HCFC-22 will no longer be manufactured, 2030, there
will be such a large quantity remaining that a good environmental
means of destroying the stock will be required.