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LOCAL foilset Some Numerical Memory and MicroProcessor Projections for PetaFlops

Given by Peter Kogge Notre Dame at JNAC (PetaFlops) Presentation on August 28,1996. Foils prepared August 24 1996
Abstract * Foil Index for this file

This was part of a set of PetaFlop (JNAC) Presentations to group of Federal Program Managers
JNAC = Joint National Advanced Computing Initiative
This uses Moore's Law Projections of Technology for Logic and Memory
and uses Bodega Bay Application Analysis to cost memory for a "realistic" machine

Table of Contents for full HTML of Some Numerical Memory and MicroProcessor Projections for PetaFlops

1 Technology Projections
2 Conventional Microprocessor Unit Performance Path
3 Primary Memory Chip Cost
4 Notes on Primary Memory $
5 Bodega Bay Petaflops Applications Characteristics
6 Achieving 1 PF vs Bodega Bay Applications

This table of Contents Abstract

HELP! * GREY=local HTML version of LOCAL Foils prepared August 24 1996

Foil 1 Technology Projections

From Some Numerical Memory and MicroProcessor Projections for PetaFlops JNAC (PetaFlops) Presentation -- August 28,1996. * Critical Information in IMAGE
Full HTML Index
Slope of Each: approx 2.7X every 3 years
HELP! * GREY=local HTML version of LOCAL Foils prepared August 24 1996

Foil 2 Conventional Microprocessor Unit Performance Path

From Some Numerical Memory and MicroProcessor Projections for PetaFlops JNAC (PetaFlops) Presentation -- August 28,1996. * Critical Information in IMAGE
Full HTML Index
Assumes:
* 100% efficient utilization
* SIA Growth in Clock Rate
* Growth in instruction issue parallelism
In 2004 technology (for 2007 machine)
160,000 such processors gives 1 PF peak.
Problem: each requires caches, memory, I/O!
HELP! * GREY=local HTML version of LOCAL Foils prepared August 24 1996

Foil 3 Primary Memory Chip Cost

From Some Numerical Memory and MicroProcessor Projections for PetaFlops JNAC (PetaFlops) Presentation -- August 28,1996. * Critical Information in IMAGE
Full HTML Index
$1 Billion
$10 Million
HELP! * GREY=local HTML version of LOCAL Foils prepared August 24 1996

Foil 4 Notes on Primary Memory $

From Some Numerical Memory and MicroProcessor Projections for PetaFlops JNAC (PetaFlops) Presentation -- August 28,1996. * See also color IMAGE
Full HTML Index
$ are chip costs along (packaging, cooling, "batteries" extra)
  • Thus 10 TB in 1998 technology is $100M
"% of Petaflops Apps" refers to Bodega Bay Applications
  • Thus somewhat more than 50% of Bodega Bay apps require less than 1 TB for execution
Real systems probably require some multiple of this memory for next app preload, I/O buffers, etc.
HELP! * GREY=local HTML version of LOCAL Foils prepared August 24 1996

Foil 5 Bodega Bay Petaflops Applications Characteristics

From Some Numerical Memory and MicroProcessor Projections for PetaFlops JNAC (PetaFlops) Presentation -- August 28,1996. * Critical Information in IMAGE
Full HTML Index
PETABYTE
TERABYTE
15 min
1 Day
1 Year
HELP! * GREY=local HTML version of LOCAL Foils prepared August 24 1996

Foil 6 Achieving 1 PF vs Bodega Bay Applications

From Some Numerical Memory and MicroProcessor Projections for PetaFlops JNAC (PetaFlops) Presentation -- August 28,1996. * See also color IMAGE
Full HTML Index
10 TB Primary Memory supports almost all apps whose run time is under 1 day + over half of those that run > 1 day.
For 2007 conventional machine, using 2004 technology and a mere 10 TB primary memory
  • Approx. 20,000 DRAM chips @ $10M chip cost
  • AT LEAST 160,000 of state of art microprocessors
  • Problem: 1 memory chip/8 uPs fails bandwidth test!!!
At $1,000 per uP (cache, cooling, ...), this is approx
  • $200M machine
  • 1M sq. cm. of silicon
Northeast Parallel Architectures Center, Syracuse University, npac@npac.syr.edu

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